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Sunday, 23 August 2026

Dollar Inflows Surge as RBI Swap Facility Nears $73 Billion; Gold Extends Historic Rally

RBI's Swap Windfall

India has drawn $72.8 billion in dollar inflows through the RBI's special swap facility as of August 21, with FCNR(B) deposits alone contributing $65.4 billion, per CNBC-TV18. Foreign exchange reserves have risen nearly $50 billion since July, gaining over $9 billion in the week to August 14 alone. Banks including ICICI, Kotak, HDFC and Bank of Baroda together raised $4.4 billion via overseas debt this week, the busiest week for such issuance, much of it to fund FCNR(B) leverage.

Goldman's Banking Bet

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on fourteen Indian banks, naming ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank as top picks alongside HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Federal Bank and AU Small Finance Bank. The brokerage expects private lenders to outperform state-owned peers over the next two years on loan growth and liquidity, even as it sees overall credit growth moderating to 14-15% through FY29. Bank Nifty's 0.46% gain to 57,761.95 today sits against this backdrop of institutional optimism.

Gold's Relentless Climb

Gold has surged 2.39% to 4,680.6 in today's session, extending a rally that has seen MCX prices gain roughly ₹19,000 per 10 grams in August alone, settling near ₹1,62,438 for a 13% monthly gain. The move is being attributed to a softening dollar and diminished expectations of Fed tightening, with COMEX gold testing resistance near $4,620-4,630 an ounce. Bitcoin's parallel 23% weekly surge toward $78,000 suggests a broader risk-and-hedge rotation is underway across asset classes.

Block Deals & IPO Pipeline Build

Y Combinator is set to offload up to 1.05% of Meesho for ₹957.5 crore at a floor price of ₹197.5, while SoftBank's Vision Fund II Lightbulb is likely to sell roughly 2.6% of Lenskart for about $300 million at ₹635 per share. Separately, Gemini Edibles & Fats, maker of Freedom Oils, has filed its DRHP for a pure offer-for-sale IPO after posting FY26 revenue of ₹12,650 crore, and Rays of Belief (Mom's Belief) will open its own IPO on September 1. Equity mutual fund AUM has hit a record ₹48.5 lakh crore in July with SIPs holding above ₹30,000 crore, underscoring the domestic liquidity absorbing this fresh paper.

Wall Street Sets the Tone

The Dow Jones climbed 0.98% to 53,277.01 and the Nasdaq added 0.43% to 26,180.46 as US business activity data showed the fastest pace of growth in over four years, halting a five-day Nasdaq 100 slide. Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei down 0.30% to 66,016.36 while the Hang Seng jumped 1.21% to 26,009.46. Attention now turns to Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium, both seen as pivotal for AI-spending narratives and the Fed's rate path.

Crude Keeps Nifty in Check

Crude oil is up 0.65% to 94.39 today, with West Asia tensions cited by ET Markets as a key reason Indian equities may stay rangebound absent fresh triggers. FPIs have continued offloading shares even as domestic institutions stepped in as buyers, a dynamic that has kept the Nifty largely directionless through the past week. Elevated crude above $90 a barrel remains a persistent overhang for India's import bill and currency stability.

Sugar's Sharp Swing

Sugar stocks including Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hindusthan and Uttam Sugar rallied to 52-week highs on strong pre-festival demand before gains moderated following the government's announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports. The government has flagged a shrinking sugar stockpile as production estimates fall, with reduced ethanol diversion also in focus. This sector move illustrates how policy interventions can quickly reshape near-term price action even amid a genuine demand upcycle.

Zee's Warrant Move

Zee Entertainment has allotted 20.94 crore convertible warrants to promoter entity Sunbright Mauritius at ₹126 each, a capital infusion that follows the Securities Appellate Tribunal's stay on SEBI's order to debar the company and CEO Punit Goenka in the Hyderabad land pledge case. The warrant allotment signals promoter confidence and provides balance-sheet support even as the underlying regulatory matter remains unresolved. Investors will likely watch how this capital is deployed against Zee's ongoing turnaround efforts.

Sector Intelligence
Banking
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on 14 lenders, favouring ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Federal Bank and AU Small Finance Bank on expected cyclical earnings recovery.
Bullion
Gold up 2.39% today and roughly 13% for August on MCX, driven by dollar softness and reduced Fed hawkishness expectations.
Sugar
Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hindusthan and peers hit 52-week highs on festive demand before duty-free import announcements moderated the rally.
New-age Tech/Internet
Large block deals in Meesho (Y Combinator selling ~1.05%) and Lenskart (SoftBank Vision Fund selling ~2.6%) signal early investor profit-booking in recently listed names.
Renewable Energy
NTPC Green Energy's arm won 500 MW in a SECI peak power tender at ₹6/kWh, though the stock closed marginally lower on Friday.
Media
Zee Entertainment allotted warrants to its promoter group at ₹126 apiece, coinciding with a tribunal stay on SEBI's debarment order against the company and its CEO.
What To Watch
  • 1Nvidia's quarterly earnings report and its read-through for AI infrastructure spending
  • 2Fed Chair commentary and policy signals emerging from the Jackson Hole symposium
  • 3Follow-through on RBI's forex swap facility inflows and their impact on FCNR(B) deposit flows
  • 4Crude oil price trajectory amid ongoing West Asia geopolitical tensions
  • 5Final pricing and market reaction to the Meesho and Lenskart block deals
  • 6Sugar sector price action following the government's duty-free import allowance

INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. CONSULT A SEBI-REGISTERED ADVISER BEFORE INVESTING.

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