The Bleeding Continues
The Nifty 50 slipped to 22,421.95 (-0.88%) and the Sensex fell to 71,909.7 (-0.79%), extending what ET reports has been an eight-week losing streak that has wiped out roughly Rs 26 lakh crore in market capitalisation. The proximate triggers are familiar but intensifying: the 10-year G-Sec yield has breached 7.20%, a two-and-a-half-year high, while the rupee logged its biggest single-day fall in over two months to touch 96.31 against the dollar. With Brent at 102.7 (+0.38%) adding to the strain, the combination of elevated oil, surging yields, and a weakening currency is proving a tougher drag on sentiment than any single factor alone.
Foreign Investors Head for the Exit
FPIs pulled a record Rs 3 lakh crore out of Indian equities across the first nine months of 2026, with September alone seeing Rs 35,860 crore in outflows and October adding a further Rs 9,232 crore, per ET. This follows a brief return of confidence in July-August when Rs 49,830 crore had flowed in, underscoring how quickly sentiment can reverse once US bond yields and dollar strength reassert themselves. The RBI's defense of the rupee has already cost $18.34 billion in forex reserves over the week ended September 25, taking the three-week drawdown to $38.15 billion from the September 4 record high.
IT Defies the Downtrend
Nifty IT bucked the broader weakness decisively, surging 2.17% to 28,304.7, with TCS, Wipro, Infosys and HCL Tech all catching a bid after Accenture's better-than-expected quarterly results lifted sentiment across the outsourcing complex, as Livemint notes. Separately, Wipro's decision to extend bench time for junior staff to 180 days — a departure from peers — signals a cautious internal stance on demand even as headline stock reaction stays positive. Investors will be parsing whether the Accenture read-through translates into actual deal-flow commentary when Indian IT majors report their own quarters.
Banking Leadership Shuffle in Focus
HDFC Bank's appointment of Anup Bagchi as CEO is drawing scrutiny given the stock's roughly 11-13% weight in the Nifty 50 and about 12.5% in the Sensex, per Livemint, with historical precedent from Yes Bank, RBL and IndusInd being revisited for clues on how leadership transitions typically play out for bank stocks. Separately, Jefferies sees further upside potential in Kotak Mahindra Bank following Anup Saha's appointment, noting the stock has risen only 9% since the previous MD's tenure began. Bank Nifty itself held up relatively better than the broader market, down just 0.33% to 54,450.75.
Capital Raising Season Heats Up
Bajaj Finance's board has approved a combined Rs 17,500 crore fundraise via an Rs 11,700 crore QIP and an Rs 5,800 crore warrant issue to promoter Bajaj Finserv, a move that will require shareholder approval and is structured to limit promoter dilution. Elsewhere, PNB reported global business growth of 12% and deposit growth of 9.9% in H1 FY27, while M&M Financial Services posted a 22% YoY jump in Q2 disbursements to Rs 16,490 crore. These updates arrive against a backdrop of tightening system liquidity and rising bond yields, which could make the cost and timing of capital raises more consequential than in calmer markets.
Rate Hike Odds Diverge: RBI vs Fed
Domestically, SBI Research now expects CPI inflation near 5.65% in September and above 6.5% in October-November, reinforcing expectations the RBI could deliver a 25 bps hike to 5.50% at its upcoming October policy review, per Livemint. This stands in contrast to the US, where September payrolls grew just 29,000 versus forecasts of 84,000-90,000, prompting traders to slash the odds of an October Fed hike to under 20% and sending Wall Street higher. The diverging policy paths — India tightening while the Fed pauses — could have implications for rate-differential-driven capital flows into the rupee.
Corporate Capex and Commodity Signals
Reliance announced a Rs 1 lakh crore investment in Andhra Pradesh for compressed biogas plants, projected to create 3 lakh jobs and Rs 60,000 crore in state revenue, while Adani Ports logged 11% YoY cargo volume growth to 46 MMT in September, a fresh record for the group's flagship listed entity. In commodities, Nuvama upgraded Coal India citing a 12.5% rise in September e-auction offtake and strong e-auction premiums, while Kotak flagged a bullish view on ONGC and a cautious one on Oil India after raising its FY27 oil price assumption to $90, underscoring how elevated crude is reshaping relative positioning within the energy complex.
IPO Pipeline Stays Active Despite Volatility
Reliance Jio's much-anticipated IPO is reportedly targeting an October 21-23 subscription window, a listing that could be one of the largest in Indian market history and a significant test of primary market appetite amid the current FPI outflow environment. Separately, SEBI has cleared four more IPOs — Carlsberg India's local unit, TMC Transformers (targeting Rs 550 crore), Ujin Pharma, and Matangi Rubber — suggesting the primary market pipeline remains active even as secondary market sentiment sours. The government's extension of the RoDTEP export incentive scheme through December 2026, with insurance cover raised to 95% for West Asia-linked shipments, is a smaller but notable data point on policy support for exporters navigating a volatile rupee.