Eight Weeks of Pain, No Respite Yet
The Nifty 50 closed at 22,421.95, down 0.88%, while the Sensex shed 0.79% to settle at 71,909.7, extending what ET describes as the longest losing streak in 25 years. September alone wiped out 4,476.98 points on the Sensex and 1,459.95 points on the Nifty, a nearly 6% monthly decline, with CNBC-TV18 noting the crucial 22,200-22,217 support zone is back in focus after Thursday's low. Technically, the index has slipped below its rising trendline from the June 2024-April 2025 swing lows, a structural signal that traders are watching closely even as 84% of Nifty50 stocks now trade below their 200-day moving averages.
RBI's Rate Call Takes Centre Stage
An ET poll suggests the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee could raise the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% on October 7, with elevated crude prices and weak agricultural output cited as the inflation drivers forcing the central bank's hand. This sits uneasily alongside Governor Shaktikanta Das's comment that India remains within striking distance of 8% GDP growth, underscoring the tension between near-term inflation control and growth momentum. A hawkish surprise or dovish pause either way is likely to be the week's single biggest swing factor for bond yields and banking stocks.
IT's Contrarian Rally Ahead of TCS Numbers
Nifty IT bucked the broader weakness decisively, surging 2.17% to 28,304.7, as positive read-through from Accenture's results and a strong Wall Street session lifted sentiment ahead of TCS's Q2 earnings on October 8. Yet BusinessLine and ET both flag a cautious preview: muted revenue growth, steady margins, prolonged deal-decision cycles, and AI-led pricing deflation are expected to weigh on tier-1 IT companies this quarter. The rally may reflect relief after a dismal stretch rather than a fundamental turnaround, making the actual TCS print a key test of whether the move has legs.
Banking Leadership Churn and Business Updates
HDFC Bank confirmed Anup Bagchi as the new MD & CEO, ending succession uncertainty following Sashidhar Jagdishan's exit, while separately disclosing it mobilised $11.5 billion in FCNR(B) deposits under the RBI swap window and issued $2.5 billion in senior unsecured bonds. YES Bank reported Q2 loan growth of 24% to ₹3 lakh crore and 20% YoY deposit growth, even as its shares closed nearly flat at ₹20.70. Bank Nifty's relatively modest 0.33% decline versus the broader market suggests financials are holding up better than other large-cap pockets, though the RBI decision this week could reset that dynamic quickly.
FPI Exodus Meets IPO Mania
Foreign portfolio investors pulled $4.8 billion from listed equities in September even as they poured $1 billion into the primary market across a record 34 IPOs that month, according to ET, with 96 listings so far in 2026. This week alone brings 29 new listings with grey-market premiums signalling gains as high as 59% for some issues, alongside ₹16,344 crore of fresh supply from shareholder lock-in expiries across 15 companies. The widening gap between secondary-market selling and primary-market enthusiasm highlights how capital is rotating within Indian equities rather than fleeing entirely, with the eagerly awaited Jio Platforms IPO, valued at $143-146 billion, expected to further test this appetite by month-end.
Tata Group's Dual Narrative: Chips and Boardroom Discord
Tata's Assam semiconductor facility is nearing completion with a non-China supply chain reportedly in place, a strategic hedge against geopolitical and mineral-related disruptions. Simultaneously, the Tata Sons boardroom battle has escalated, with Noel Tata seeking video recordings and minutes from the September 17 meeting where the board voted 4:1 to grant N. Chandrasekaran a third term, a decision Noel Tata has called a 'legal nullity'. Investors tracking group companies will want clarity on whether this governance friction has any bearing on capital allocation or strategic continuity at the holding company level.
Selective Strength Beneath the Surface
Bajaj Finance has fallen only about 2% in 2026 against a roughly 13% Nifty decline, a divergence ET attributes to its ₹17,500 crore capital raise that Jefferies estimates could lift FY28e book value per share by 8%. D-Mart's Avenue Supermarts posted 4.7% sequential revenue growth, while AM Intelligence's $4 billion commitment to 20,000 Nvidia GPUs signals continued capital deployment into India's AI infrastructure buildout regardless of broader market jitters. These pockets of resilience suggest the selloff has been uneven rather than universal, rewarding specific balance-sheet and growth stories.
GST Overhaul and Policy Crosscurrents
The GST Council is reportedly weighing withdrawal of the IGST exemption on gold, silver and platinum imports by banks, a move aimed at curbing non-essential imports and managing forex outflows, even as gold trades at 4,185.8, up 0.56%. Separately, the Council may introduce compliance relief for e-commerce sellers and scrap officers' arrest powers for routine disputes, raising the prosecution threshold to ₹5 crore. These reforms, alongside ongoing India-Canada CEPA talks and Lockheed Martin's $10.5 billion aircraft bid with Tata Advanced Systems, point to a busy policy calendar running parallel to the market's technical struggles.