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Sunday, 11 October 2026

Markets Snap Eight-Week Slide as RBI Fires Rupee Defence, IT Stocks Roar Back

Rupee Rescue Mission

The RBI has moved aggressively to defend the rupee near record lows of 96.78, tightening forex derivative rules by cutting the no-underlying-exposure threshold from $100 million to $5 million and imposing a 20% cash reserve requirement on large forex derivative transactions. A special dollar window has been opened for IOC, HPCL and BPCL from Monday to meet their daily dollar needs directly, reducing market-driven demand spikes. These moves aim to curb speculative positioning and restore orderly trading, though bankers caution they could also dent forward premiums and liquidity in the derivatives market.》

Eight-Week Losing Streak Snapped

The Nifty 50 closed up 1.30% at 22,520.45 and the Sensex gained 1.23% to 72,472.33, ending an eight-week losing run that had seen FIIs sell Rs 30,294 crore even as DIIs absorbed nearly the same amount at Rs 30,313 crore. Bank Nifty's 1.36% rise to 55,256.65 reflects optimism around Q2 earnings, though analysts caution the outlook remains cautious given persistent FII outflows, elevated crude near $104.72 and rising global bond yields.》

IT Pack Leads The Charge

Nifty IT surged 3.02% to 28,574.9, led by a reported 4.2% jump in TCS shares despite ongoing US immigration curbs affecting the sector, as OpenAI's revised revenue projections eased fears of AI-led disruption to traditional IT services. TCS separately disclosed it will withhold quarterly variable pay from senior employees (C3A grade and above) for missing internal targets, even as AI-linked revenue rose nearly 20%, while HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra results this week will further shape sector sentiment.》

Jio's Mega IPO Takes Shape

Jio Platforms is finalising a Rs 30,000-30,213 crore IPO expected to open October 21-23, positioning it as India's largest-ever public issue ahead of Hyundai Motor India's Rs 27,859 crore offering, with Akash and Isha Ambani pitching to global investors at a targeted valuation up to Rs 10.3 lakh crore. Existing investors including Meta and Google are reportedly seeking to raise stakes rather than exit, and at a reported ₹11 lakh crore valuation, Jio would sit slightly above Bharti Airtel's roughly ₹10.87 lakh crore market cap, a comparison already being drawn with Vodafone Idea and Indus Towers.》

Earnings Season Gathers Pace

DMart operator Avenue Supermarts reported an 8.5% rise in Q2 net profit to Rs 743 crore on 17.8% revenue growth to Rs 19,644 crore, though EBITDA margins slipped on entry-level wage inflation even as it added 15 stores to reach 518 outlets. Poonawalla Fincorp posted a five-fold jump in net profit to Rs 375 crore with NII up 75.6% and GNPA improving to 1.2%, while brokerages expect small and mid-cap earnings to outpace large caps this quarter, with Nifty 50 profit growth pegged near 17% year-on-year.》

Capex And Order Books Build

Adani Green Energy reported a 24% rise in operational capacity to 20,763 MW and 32% growth in energy sales to 25,747 million units in H1FY27, adding 4,083 MW of greenfield capacity, with Q2 results due October 21. KEC International secured fresh transmission and distribution orders worth Rs 1,014 crore, pushing its year-to-date order intake past Rs 9,600 crore, reinforcing continued momentum in India's infrastructure and power capex cycle.》

Regulatory Shifts On Deck

SEBI chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said guidelines on the Closing Auction Session mechanism, which determines settlement prices for derivatives on expiry days through an auction process, will be issued within a week, alongside a broader review of depository, broker, AI-use and digital onboarding rules. Separately, Persistent Systems has crossed the 90% ownership threshold in Nagarro, enabling a minority shareholder squeeze-out as it moves to become India's seventh-largest IT services firm.》

Trade Talks And Global Backdrop

Commerce minister Piyush Goyal indicated India is reassessing its interim US trade framework as 'circumstances have changed,' with parallel negotiations active with Mexico, the UK and Canada, even as export data through September showed resilience. Wall Street's overnight strength, with the Dow up 0.83% to 51,654.95, S&P 500 up 0.59% to 7,811.54 and Nasdaq up 0.64% to 27,366.17, alongside Hang Seng's 1.79% jump to 24,211.35, provided a supportive global backdrop, even as the Nikkei was roughly flat at 69,030.92.》

Sector Intelligence
Information Technology
Nifty IT jumped 3.02% on a reported 4.2% TCS surge and eased AI-disruption fears after OpenAI's revenue update, though US immigration curbs remain an overhang ahead of HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra results.
Banking & Financials
Bank Nifty rose 1.36%; PSU banks like SBI, PNB and Union Bank may outpace private peers in profit growth this quarter, while HDFC, ICICI and Axis are seen delivering stronger NII growth, per analyst previews.
Renewable Energy & Power
Adani Green's 24% capacity growth to 20,763 MW and KEC International's Rs 1,014 crore in fresh T&D orders underline continued capex momentum in India's energy transition and grid infrastructure buildout.
Retail & Consumer
DMart's 17.8% revenue growth to Rs 19,644 crore shows resilient consumption, though margin compression from wage inflation signals cost pressures building across organised retail.
Telecom
Jio Platforms' pending Rs 30,000 crore IPO at a reported ₹11 lakh crore valuation is reshaping sector comparisons, with Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Indus Towers all being benchmarked against the listing.
Industrial & Logistics Real Estate
Industrial and warehousing leasing hit a record 59.1 million sq ft in Jan-Sep across top 24 cities, driven by e-commerce, light manufacturing and third-party logistics demand, per Savills data.
What To Watch
  • 1RBI's special dollar window for oil marketing companies beginning Monday and its early impact on rupee stability near 96.73-96.78
  • 2SEBI's Closing Auction Session guidelines expected within a week and their implications for derivatives expiry settlement
  • 3Q2 earnings from HCL Technologies, Wipro and Tech Mahindra following TCS's variable pay disclosures and IT sector rally
  • 4Whether FII selling, now in its ninth week, shows signs of reversing given the Friday rebound
  • 5Brent crude trajectory around the $104.72 level and its pass-through effect on inflation and the rupee
  • 6Jio Platforms IPO developments ahead of its anticipated October 21-23 subscription window

INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. CONSULT A SEBI-REGISTERED ADVISER BEFORE INVESTING.

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